The day after tomorrow
By Sumair Abdullah
On 3 November 2020, American people will decide who will be their new President.
The Economist’s forecast at the beginning of August gave Democratic candidate Joe Biden a very high probability of winning.
If Biden wins, he becomes the most ambitious democratic president for this generation. As the coronavirus pandemic hit America, President Donald Trump had a 50-50 chance of being re-elected but then America saw the kind of protests and demonstrations that it had not seen since the 60s, and polling numbers of Joe Biden have now risen nationwide.
According to recent polls published in New York Times, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by a wide margin. So, what would happen if Joe Biden becomes the 46th President of the United States of America? And what changes would be seen in the US foreign policy?
During the Trump presidency, America has shifted her foreign policy on major issues like climate change, the Middle East, trade war with China, sanction on Iran, talks with Taliban, and renewal of trade agreements with Canada and Mexico.
Joe Biden is well experienced on foreign affairs having the experience of serving President Barak Obama for two terms as Vice-President. During his election campaign, Biden criticized Trump on policies towards China. On a recent interview given to 60 minutes, Biden stressed that China was not the biggest threat to America and Russia was. Trump, in turn, criticized Biden on having a soft corner towards Beijing.
As if anybody else is.
The ties between China and America, during the Obama presidency was not so tense as were during the Trump administration days. We may witness de-escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing if Biden becomes President.
There are some issues where Trump and Biden are mostly on the same page, terms with Gulf countries being one of them. Trump was too sympathetic towards Netanyahu as the lattter has effectively received everything that he has asked for from Donald Trump.
Trump is the most pro-Israel president in the history of the United States. Recently we saw how Trump could convince some Gulf countries like the UAE and Bahrain to agree on establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. Biden supports these peace overtures between the Arabs and the Jewish State. In one of his statements, he has owned the deal, emphasizing that these peace agreements happened because of Obama’s polices.
When Trump was elected for his first term, his first visit was to Saudi Arabia. In the four years that came later, Trump and Saudi King Salman came very close. Trump has supported Saudi-led war against Yemen but Biden has a different opinion.
During the Democratic Party primaries debates, Biden explained his Middle East policy saying he would not support the Saudi-led war against Yemen. He added, he would support a two-state solution for Palestine and Israel, and Israel should stop expansion of settlement. But Biden told to New York Times that, he is not backing the idea of moving back US embassy from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv.
This brings us to another key question: what about the Turkish interests in the regions.
Turkey is one of the key allies of the US. But during the Obama tenure, US-Turkey ties were tested. Turkey accused the US of supporting Fethullah Gulen who Ankara accuses of being involved in the 16 July 2016 attempted coup. When Trump came into power, he had a different approach towards Turkey.
Trump praised Erdogan during the latter’s last visit to the White House. Trump had said; “The president and I have been very good friends. We have been friends from long time ago almost from day one.” Trump criticized Obama administration for not understanding the Turkish point of view. He said Obama even though supported Erdogan but still restrained him from launching an attack on the Kurds. During the term of Trump, Erdogan’s foreign policy was more adventurous in Libya and Syria. Joe Biden has different plans for Turkey.
He is opposed to the aggressions of Turkey in northern Syrian border against Kurds. Biden told New York Times that he would support the Kurds opposition to defeat Erdogan. He has also shown his concern on the F-15 jets and Russian-made missile system S-400 issues between the US and Turkey
Relationship with Iran has always been a major issue between the two countries ever since the Islamic revolution by Ruhollah Khomeini. But during the tenure of Obama administration the two countries signed an agreement in 2015, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), according to which, Iran will reduce her nuclear production in exchange of the US lifting trade sanction on her. This agreement was done away with unilaterally by the Trump administration. Biden wants to return to the JCPOA. The Trump wants to deal with Iran with strong sanctions. In January this year, Iran had attacked American bases in Iraq, and Trump issued statement against Iran provocative action. “The American people should be extremely grateful and happy no Americans were harmed in last night’s attack by the Iranian regime. We suffered no casualties, all of our soldiers are safe, and only minimal damage was sustained at our military bases.” He added, “Iran’s hostilities substantially increased after the foolish Iran nuclear deal was signed in 2013, and they were given $150 billion, not to mention $1.8 billion in cash. Instead of saying “thank you” to the United States, they chanted “death to America.” In fact, they chanted “death to America” the day the agreement was signed.
Iran has been the leading sponsor of terrorism, and their pursuit of nuclear weapons threatens the civilized world.” There would be more alterations in the US foreign policy if Joe Biden becomes President. The Paris Agreement is also a keen issue, which is the international climate accord that has US has sign under the Obama administration which aims to combat global warming. The Taliban peace talks, North Korean nuclear expansion, and Russian influence in the Middle East would be hard challenges of foreign policy for Biden if he became the 46th President of United States of America.
